What does Rachel Reeves' Budget do for policing, justice and immigration? Here's a quick guide to the three Government departments responsible.
First, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ). From 2023/4 to 2025/6, its day-to-day funding is expected to grow by 4.3% in real terms. That’ll help fund extra probation and prison staff, but how much of that additional money will be eaten up by the increased costs of employer National Insurance (NI) contributions, for HM Prison and Probation Service and the Courts and Tribunal Service? A substantial amount, I’d have thought.
As part of its Budget statement, the Government says it is paying for 106,500 Crown Court sitting days in England and Wales in 2024/5 but - worryingly - no figure has been agreed for next year - and nothing has been announced about raising legal aid rates to attract and retain lawyers doing criminal, civil and asylum work. It's crucial the MoJ funds this.
Capital MoJ spending is forecast to rise by 14.9% in real terms from 2023/4 to 2025/6 - funding prison building and maintenance. That is of course welcome, though entirely expected. But the key question is whether the MoJ can get planning permission and construction started quickly enough to keep pace with the projected rise in the prison population.
The Law Officers’ department - which funds the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) and the Serious Fraud Office - is forecast to get 7.5% extra funding in real terms from 2023/4 to 2025/6. Some of this has already helped the CPS deal with prosecutions arising from the August riots. It also includes funding for Crown Courts to move from paper-based documents for juries to a digital system. In comparison with other departmental spending, however, these are small sums.
At the Home Office, day-to-day spending is projected to fall by 3.2% in real terms, from 2023/4 to 2025/6. The Government says that’s mainly because £4 billion is being saved over two years by cancelling the Rwanda scheme and increasing asylum processing and returns of people with no right to be in the UK. But will those projected Home Office savings be swallowed up by the costs of dealing with small boat crossings and the rising backlog of asylum appeals? Over 30,000 people have already crossed the Channel this year, up 14% on the figure this time last year, and there are a record 33,200 cases in the asylum appeals backlog.
As for policing in England and Wales, the Government says Home Office funding will “increase” the core central grant for police forces by 2025/6. Forces also get some funding from local authorities, via the council tax. But police will have to fund the extra employers NI charge and with a total workforce of 236,500 that’s going to be a hefty bill.
The Government says its pledge to provide an extra 13,000 neighbourhood police officers and community support officers, known as PCSOs, will be funded "through police efficiencies”, but there’s no clarity on the timescale. The Treasury says productivity improvements will start from 2026/27, but I’m sure the Home Office will want those new neighbourhood cops on the streets well before then.
The longer-term outlook for departments, like the MoJ and the Home Office, whose budgets aren’t protected, is really gloomy. The independent watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), says their day-to-day spending will fall by 1.1% in real terms, from 2025/6 to 2028/9. The OBR says the reduction in funding could be even worse - depending on how much money other ‘unprotected’ departments, such as the Ministry of Defence, are given.
I’m not an economist, but this Budget strongly suggests that funding for policing, justice and immigration will be very tight over the next few years. For the Home Office, much will hinge on police productivity and progress on asylum numbers. For the MoJ, I’m afraid it means there won't be any significant reduction in Crown Court backlogs by the time of the next General Election.